1. Introduction
Where
Marx believed that social class is the most basic division in any
society, Max Weber saw conflict as having many possible bases religion,
race, ethnicity, and more including social class. Where Marx believed
that class inequalities would ultimately be ended by revolution, Weber saw conflict as eternal, although it could take new forms. Group conflict theory derives from Weber’s vision.
Johan Galtung has come up with more concrete and specific expression
about conflict, which is in fact fitted in the case of Kashmir
conflict. Galtung (1998) has showed how conflict arises, “…goals may be
incompatible and mutually exclusive, like two states wanting the same
land, or two nations wanting the same state when goals are
incompatible, a contradiction, an issue, is born… frustration may lead
to aggression, turning inwards as attitudes of hatred, or outwards as
behaviour of verbal or physical violence…”. Thus Galtung has drawn a
triangle of contradiction, attitude and behavior centering a conflict.
India and Pakistan both claims Kashmir, which originated the conflict.
The 55 years long conflict has not yet been resolved, on the other hand
it has intensified hatred between Indian and Pakistanis that can be
termed as Galtung’s ‘attitude of hatred’ transformed from long lasting
frustration. The bilateral dialogues between leaders of both countries
had failed numerous times to reach at peaceful decision and resolution.
The leaders of both countries have encountered each other with words of
threat and by act of violence as well as exercised military power,
tested nuclear weapons and missiles. The arm race and the cross boarder
conflict between India and Pakistan to threat each other can be
compared as Galtung’s ‘behaviour of verbal or physical violence’. India
and Pakistan has enemy image for each other. They exert enmity though
the conflict behavior e.g. action, threat, cross boarder shelling,
hatred speech etc.
Kashmir fell in trouble because of the two-nation theory that was
stimulated by the divided Muslim and Hindu leaders during partition at
1947. Muslim leaders felt for an independent state for Muslims as they
realized that they would not receive freedom under a Hindu headed
state. The two-nation theory is reasonable as it helps us to know
source of Kashmir conflict. Kashmir conflict can also be defined as
cultural and political conflict. Singh (1998: 320) has emphasized on
cultural identity as he says, “…the ways in which each state’s
respective relationship to the institutions of the Indian central state
has served as the focal point for the creation and maintenance of
cultural identity…”. Government of India has dominated ethnic and
religious minorities to sustain on one cultural identity though the
state has secular image in the outer surface. But the word ‘cultural
conflict’ needs deliberately further investigation to adjust at Kashmir
conflict because the world ‘culture’ has a set of different elements,
which may have complex relations among each other. In my opinion, the
concept of religious conflict is acceptable as a reason of origin of
the conflict. In addition, Kashmir is now interstate political issue
between India and Pakistan; the conflict in Kashmir also falls under
intrastate conflict category. Kashmir was an issue of international
politics during decade long cold war era while the two nuclear power of
today was supported by the two super power of cold war era.
2. Background
Kashmir
conflict is a long lasting issue between India and Pakistan.
Historical, cultural and religious factors are involved here in the
conflict. Under the scheme of partition provided by the Indian
Independence Act of 1947, Kashmir was free to accede to India or
Pakistan. Its accession to India became a matter of dispute between the
two countries and fighting broke out later that year. Indurthy (2003:1)
has showed the frequency of Kashmir conflict, “since partition of
British India into India and Pakistan in August, 1947, the Kashmir
dispute between the two countries has become an intractable one. They
fought wars in 1947-48, 1965, 1971, and 1999, but have not been able to
resolve the issue…”. During Partition in India Hindus were about 66
percent and Muslims were about 24 percent of the population. Muhammad
Ali Jinnah, leader of the Muslim League, and other Muslim leader feared
that an independent government over all India would favor Hindus over
Muslims. Indian Muslims, Jinnah argued, would have no more freedom
under such a government than they had had under British rule. Thus
during time of partition Muslim leaders feared that after the departure
of British, majority Hindu will dominate India that would be worse for
the minority Muslims that they had experienced under British ruled
India. They main cause of Kashmir conflict was rooted by the decision
of Maharaja Hari Singh. Under the partition plan provided by the Indian
Independence Act of 1947, Kashmir was free to accede to India or
Pakistan. Maharaja decided to accede to India.
Mehta (2003:1) has explained the link between partition of India
with today’s conflict on the line of control, “by the time the British
abandoned India in 1947, their politics of “divide and rule” had
effectively polarized the Hindu and Muslim populations…more than a
million people died in the greatest migration in history, as Muslims
from India headed to Pakistan and Pakistan was emptied of its Hindus
and Sikhs…but the Hindu maharaja, who ruled over the Muslim majority,
vacillated until an invasion by Pakistani irregulars convinced him to
join India….the average Kashmiri now lives like a tongue between teeth,
in a balance of terror between the security forces and the Islamic
militants…”.
India has never accepted U.N. resolution for the plebiscite. In
fact, India is quite sure that the accepting plebiscite means loosing
the territory, as the Kashmiris prefer Pakistan. But the majority
Kashmiris desire independence. India does not feel it necessary to
consider U.N. proposed plebiscite because Kashmiris have voted in
national elections in India; there is no need for a plebiscite
according to Indian government. Pakistan always says that a plebiscite
should be held. Several of the militant groups in Kashmir have also
called for a plebiscite but argue that an independent Kashmir should be
an option. On July 2, 1972, India and Pakistan signed the Simla Accord,
under which both countries agreed to respect the cease-fire line, known
as the Line of Control.
Since 1996, Indian forces have got control over major towns and
villages of the Kashmir valley, militant groups have occupied far
northern and southern borders of Kashmir, including the districts of
Rajouri, Punch, and Doda. The Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front was
weakened later on by the continuous efforts of Indian government. The
remaining groups, most of which have close ties to Pakistan, have been
largely driven to the more remote mountain areas of Doda and other
southern districts.
3. Map of Kashmir
Kashmir is a legendarily beautiful mountainous regi on that is located where the borders of India, Pakistan and China meet. Fig 1 shows the Schematic Map of conflicted Kashmir[i]
The two countries went to war over the issue in 1947-49 and again in
1965. In those conflicts Pakistan and China gained control of territory
claimed by India. In 1999 India fought a war with Pakistani-backed
forces in the Kargil area.
Muslim-majority Valley of Kashmir is under Indian administration,
along with Hindu majority Jammu and predominantly Buddhist Ladakh. Two
other parts, both of them entirely Muslim, are under Pakistani
administration, and some largely unpopulated areas are currently ruled
by China.
3.1 Conflict parties
The
Conflict parties are India, Pakistan and the Majority Kashmiri Muslims.
In Kashmir All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) is an umbrella
organization. The Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) has had
developed political and militant movement for the independence of
Kashmir. Major militant organizations include the Hizb-ul Mujahidin,
Harakat-ul Ansar and Lashgar-i Toiba. Muslim United Front (MUF)
attracted the support of a broad range of Kashmiris, including
pro-independence activists, embittered Kashmiri youth and the
pro-Pakistan Jama’at-i Islami, an Islamic political organization. In
general there are there conflict parties,
a) India
b) Pakistan
c) Kashmiri Muslims
4. Conflict Mapping
Kamarulzaman
Askandar (2004) has given a model of ‘conflict mapping’ and explained
the steps of conflict mapping, which helps us to plot a specific
conflict in to the structure for having clear picture about the
conflict. Kashmir conflict can be better understood from needs and fear
analysis of conflicting parties, issues, causes, effects and conflict
relation which are the steps of Conflict Mapping.
4.1. Needs and fears
Party A (India)
Needs
-
India regards Kashmir as an integral part of the Indian nation. India
needs to keep Kashmir for the sake of territorial integrity.
- India wants Pakistan to cease support for cross-border terrorism launched by groups that want to unite Kashmir with Pakistan.
Fear
- From losing the territory Kashmir
- UN resolution for plebiscite
- Any third party negotiation or mediation
- Kashmiris independence movement
- Kashmiris unity with Pakistan
- Loosing Kashmir may escalate separatist movement in other provinces of India
- Arm race and Nuclear tension with Pakistan
- Hindu-Muslim riot
- Terrorism
Party B (Kashmiri Muslims)
Needs
- Majority Kashmir Muslim needs Independence
- Some militant Muslim groups wants to unite with Pakistan
Fear
- Death, rape, torture, arbitrary arrest, disappearance,
summary execution, death in custody, Hindu-Muslim riot, suppression and
ignorance, discrimination, unrest situation.
- Poverty, unemployment, lack of economic progress, political unrest, social and economic insecurity.
Party C (Pakistan)
Needs
- Pakistan favors a plebiscite, as called for in a 1949 U.N. resolution.
-
Pakistan depends on rivers flowing out of Kashmir, the Jhelum, the
Chenab, and the Indus, for irrigation and electricity generation.
- Unity of India ruled Kashmir with Pakistan
Fear
- Nuclear tension with India
- Terrorist network in Kashmir and its impact in Pakistan
- U.S. friendly relation with India
- Allocating high budget to sustain in the arm race against India
- Threat of combating war against India, if war outbreaks because of conflict.
4.2. Conflict trees
Conflict
tree has three distinct parts. Causes are the roots of conflict, issue
is the trunk of the tree and effects are the branches of it.
4.2.1. Conflict Issues
Conflict issues in Kashmir are,
- Self-determination: separatist movement against Indian government to free Kashmir.
-
The LOC divides Kashmir: Indian administered Jammu and Kashmir to the
east and south (population about nine million), and
Pakistani-administered Azad (Free) Kashmir to the north and west
(population about three million). China also controls a small portion
of Kashmir.
- Nuclear tension between India and Pakistan
-
Religion is an important aspect of the dispute. The population of the
Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir is over 60% Muslim. Indian government
suppresses majority Muslims.
- Monitoring Line of Control
- Kashmiri militants are backed by Pakistan, they want to have unity of India ruled Kashmir with Pakistan.
4.2.2. Causes
Causes for the Kashmir conflict are,
- Accession signed in October 1947 by the Maharaja, Hari Singh that was not the choice of majority people in Kashmir
-
Under India’s Public Safety Act, the border security forces have the
ability to act at will without fear of retribution or justice.
- Kashmir problem is deeply rooted in the histories and national identities of India and Pakistan
- Cold War political tensions: India-Soviet ties against Pakistan-U.S. ties
- Post September 11 terrorism: India claims that some Muslim terrorist network has links with militants of Kashmir
- Hindu-Muslim riots escalate tension in Kashmir
4.2.3. Effects
The effects of conflicts are,
- Continuing turmoil in Kashmir
- Curbing religious extremism and militants
- Massive crackdown on the militants
- Shooting of unarmed demonstrators
- Civilian massacres
- Summary executions of detainees
- Militant groups continue their attacks
- Murdering and threatening Hindu residents
- Carrying out kidnappings and assassinations of government officials, civil servants, and suspected informers
- Sabotage and bombings
- 100,000 Hindu Kashmiris, known as “Pandits,” fled the valley
- Indiscriminate shootings, assaults, and rape committed by Indian army
- Detention and disappearances
- Human rights activists and lawyers have been killed or threatened
- Custodial killings
- Violent insurgency since 1989 that has claimed thousands of lives
4.3.Conflict relation
Pakistan naturally sympathizes with Muslims across
the Line of Control in India. Thus the Kashmiri militants receive arms
and training from Pakistan even though Pakistan claims to have only
moral support for them. India has had allies with Soviet Union in the
cold war era. After the fall of communism India continued to have
strong relationship with Russia.
Shuja (2004: 3) shows how India has built a close relation with
Russia for developing its military capacity, “…it is interesting to
note that India continues to develop its nuclear arms program with
foreign assistance, mainly from Russia…India also continues to
modernize its armed forces through ‘advanced conventional weapons’,
mostly from Russia. New Delhi received its first two MiG-21-93 fighter
aircraft, and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd will now begin the licensed
upgrading of 123 more aircraft”. On the other hand Pakistan was in
close military ties with U.S. during the cold war, which kept balance
of power between India-Pakistan in the South Asia.
Mr. Vajpayee’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is very much concerned
about its popularity among the majority Hindus in India. Anti Muslim,
fundamental image helped these political parties to win election in
India. These political parties have different political ideologies but
in case of Kashmir conflict they are united. Political leaders of India
are waved by the strong nationalism, which does not permit separatism
in Kashmir. BJP now relies more heavily on the support of
fundamentalist and militant Hindus. The BJP leaders often mention at
their statement and speeches that they will teach Pakistan a lesson on
Kashmir issue. BJP wants to project itself as a true nationalist force.
Any compromise or good decision for the future of Kashmiris is
unthinkable for the sake of nationalism. Some Fundamental Hindu leaders
and their followers in BJP exert enmity with Kashmiris as well as with
Pakistanis.
Conflict relation lines:
President
Musharraf is also under pressure from fundamentalists and the
fundamental political parties are not happy with Musharraf’s policies
for the US-led war in Afghanistan. They do not support President
Musharraf’s cooperation with U.S. to fight against terrorism. After the
cold war U.S.-Pakistan tie was weakened. After assisting U.S. at the
war against Taliban in Afghanistan and helping at the war against
terrorism, Pakistan has regained moderately a good relation. On the
other hand, India is good market for U.S. economy. Thus the trade and
business relation between the two countries is promising. They have
jointly arranged military exercises. India arranged joint exercises
between the US and Indian forces. The US has also indicated it will
supply modern military wares to India. U.S. does not want to have
bitter relation with any of these two countries. Therefore, U.S.
refused to play the role of mediator or negotiator in Kashmir conflict
though President Musharraf requested U.S. to resolve the conflict. The
United States is pressuring Pakistan to curb terrorism while
discouraging India from attacking. Above all, the U.S. wants to avoid a
war between two allies that could hinder the U.S. war on terrorism in
Afghanistan and the search for al Qaeda leaders believed to be hiding
in Pakistan.
India has a broken relation with China following the dispute, which
led to a war between them in 1962 and is still officially unresolved.
China had occupied a small part of the Kashmir during the war and till
today they have full control over their occupied portion. India has
bitter relation with both China and Pakistan but Pakistan has very good
relation with China since partition.
Muslim United Front (MUF) attracted the support of a broad range of
Kashmiris, including pro-independence activists, disenchanted Kashmiri
youth and the pro-Pakistan Jama’at-i Islami (an Islamic political
organization), militant groups who increasingly crossed over to
Pakistan for arms and training, the JKLF and other groups. In late
1993, the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), an umbrella
organization of the leaders of all the political and militant
organizations, acted as the political voice of the independence
movement. Major militant organizations fighting in Kashmir included the
Hizb-ul Mujahidin, Harakat-ul Ansar and Lashgar-i Toiba receive moral
support from Pakistan. Indian forces announced a unilateral ceasefire
against militant groups in November 2000, but violence continued.
Separatists demand that Pakistan should be included in any dialogue
between them and the government. India disagrees with demand as
Pakistan motivates cross boarder violence. Indian government had
brutally and strategically destroyed the unity of all groups working
for political voice for the independence in Kashmir. Insurgency is
turned as the only path for independence when the political process
failed.
Central government forces are operating Kashmir that includes the
Indian Army and India’s federal security forces, the Central Reserve
Police Force (CRPF), and the Border Security Force (BSF). Rashtriya
Rifles, an elite army unit created specifically for counterinsurgency
operations in Kashmir. Indian security forces began training local
auxiliary forces made up of surrendered or captured militants to assist
in counterinsurgency operations. India is committed to destroy any kind
of initiatives that may have the purpose of separation of Kashmir.
There has been massive international pressure on both Delhi and
Islamabad to resolve the crisis, including US, the EU and others. The
UN has maintained a presence in the disputed area since 1949.
Currently, the LOC is monitored by the UN Military Observer Group in
India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP). UN role is not much significant in
mediating conflict in Kashmir as its success is not remarkable
including its monitoring over the line of control.
5. Current events and behavior of the parties
On
May 11 and 13, 1998, India tested five nuclear devices, and three weeks
later in response, Pakistan tested too. One month later shooting and
shelling between troops of both countries on LoC killed around one
hundred civilians. On February 1999, the Prime ministers of both
countries signed the Lahore Declaration in which they agreed to talks
on Kashmir and to alert each other about arms tests. Despite the Lahore
agreement India tested long-range Agni missile, and on April 14 and 15,
following the event Pakistan tested long-range Gauri and medium-range
Shaheenmissiles. India conducted another ballistic missile test on
April 16; the situation turned into an arm race in the region. In May
1999 India deployed thousands of additional troops at Kargil region.
Later on the cross-border shelling between India and Pakistan
escalated, and fighting between Indian troops and militants have
worsened the situation and ruined any possibility for bilateral talks.
The attack in the Indian parliament in New Delhi on December 13,
2001 has raised the conspiracy theory between the two nations. India
said that Pakistan has a connection with the terrorists who attacked
the Parliament. Pakistan denied any connection. India deployed more
than a million troops, backed by heavy artillery and air power, along
the 2880 kilometer Line of Control. As India threatened war, Pakistan
declared its readiness to combat war situation.
Shuja (2004: 2) has
shown how intolerant the leaders of these two countries that fuels
conflict, “On a recent visit to Indian troops deployed a few miles from
the Line of Control, the Indian Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee,
said: ‘Our goal is victory. It is time to wage a decisive battle. India
is forced to fight a war thrust on it and we will emerge victorious.
Let there be no doubt about it: a challenge has been thrown to India,
and we accept it.’ In reply, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf vowed
to use ‘full force’ if it were attacked by India…”. Most agreements
between India and Pakistan have failed in deed. No agreement has
provided a peaceful solution at all in this area.
About one million troops have been employed. These forces on both
sides of the line are engaged in firing and shelling against each other
in a regular fashion. Both countries are now powered by nuclear weapon,
which is a big threat for spreading violence and power imbalance in
South Asia. Even tough some critics assume there is no chance of
nuclear devastation by any of these countries; 55 years Kashmir
conflict insisted these nations to develop nuclear weapon for
encountering threat from each other. Pakistan’s intention to have
nuclear power is to ensure sovereignty and insecurity from the
imbalance of power comparing with India.
6. Conflict management/resolution strategies and outcomes
All
most all conflict management strategies and resolution did not work
properly to bring peace and solution in Kashmir. Both countries have
reached aggressive levels of conflict on the issue. Level of human
development of Kashmiris is poor; on the other hand, scale of political
repression is high. India and Pakistan have followed the method of
withdrawal again and again from bilateral talks. Galtung (1998) has
explained about the nature of meta-conflicts that is applicable in the
Kashmir issue, “…the meta-conflict can be fought with physical means,
violence, war and usually leads to victory for one and defeat for
the…”. Among India, Pakistan and Kashmiris, none of them want to be
defeated. All three parties want to win the situation. Top leaders’
high level negotiation between two countries has never been succeeded.
Grass root leaders of Kashmir, who have had a desire to initiate
political dialogue with government of India, were beaten and suppressed.
In January 1948, the Security Council adopted resolution 39 (1948),
establishing the United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan
(UNCIP) to investigate and mediate the dispute. In July 1949, India and
Pakistan signed the Karachi Agreement establishing a ceasefire line to
be supervised by the observers. On 30 March 1951, following the
termination of UNCIP, the Security Council decided that The United
Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) should
continue to supervise the ceasefire in Kashmir. UNMOGIP’s functions
were to observe and report, investigate complaints of ceasefire
violations and submit its finding to each party and to the
Secretary-General.
Following the 1972 India-Pakistan agreement defining a Line of
Control in Kashmir, India took the position that the mandate of UNMOGIP
had lapsed. Pakistan, however, did not accept this position. Given that
disagreement, the Secretary-General’s position has been that UNMOGIP
can be terminated only by a decision of the Security Council. In the
absence of such a decision, UNMOGIP has been maintained with the same
mandate and functions.[i]
United Nations (UN) Security Council (SC) decided to determine the
future of Jammu and Kashmir by the democratic method of the free and
impartial plebiscite, which was not respected by Indian government
because such a plebiscite means losing the territory. In 1948 and again
in 1949, the United Nations passed two resolutions in which the Kashmir
people were promised the right to determine their own future through a
free and impartial plebiscite. These resolutions were never
implemented. Hence the resolution made by UN has proved itself
ineffective in the perspective of Kashmir conflict. Askandar (2003: 29)
has explained why resolution is not always effective, “…resolution is
sometimes not enough to ultimately end a conflict…using the techniques
of conflicts resolution merely perpetuates the conflict due to its
inadequacies…”. Couple of UN resolution in Kashmir conflict has left
the issue unresolved though temporarily it reduced the intensity of
violence.
The United States urged India and Pakistan to stop their armed
conflict in Kashmir but made no offer to mediate. Asian Political News
(1998: 1) has reported, “Rubin said the U.S. has no immediate plan to
mediate between the two countries…”. India strongly oppose for
involving third party mediation. Though Pakistan is enthusiastic about
third party engagement, India refuses any chance of third party’s role
in Kashmir. U.S. encourages both parties to keep themselves away from
war but does not want to play an active role. European Union does not
have any strong involvement in mediating the Kashmir conflict.
India has never accepted third party negotiator and Pakistan has
never been trusted by India. Thus the Conflict management strategy has
consisted of numerous dialogues between the two countries along with
distrust. There is no significant outcome in the Kashmir conflict
because India and Pakistan has always been there as enemy of each other
with disbelief and hatred. They blamed each other and ended the
dialogues without some concrete agreement and decisions. None of them
has taken initiatives to transform the conflict in innovative way or to
find strategy for ending violence. They made cease-fire numerous times
and broke it in the same fashion. Violence in Kashmir has intensified
over the decades because of the lack of initiatives. Dialogue, peace
process and cease-fire had gone in vain and tension across the LoC
fueled the conflict again and again. Even though India has secular
democracy, in Kashmir India plays authoritarian role to dominate
self-determination by any means.
The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has
already proved itself an ineffective regional body to resolve conflict
as well as to strengthen economy. The failure of SAARC for not emerging
as a good mediator is the lack of consensus among the members because
of India’s reluctance to allow SAARC. As a super power India holds
enough control over the decisions of such a regional body. Indian
government has shut downed windows for non-formal sector,
non-government groups and individuals, religious leaders and
academicians in Kashmir. Anybody talking about independence or
separation of Kashmir is considered as the traitor of the state. Civil
society in India is divided, a small part of it has courage to be
critical about government policy but the large part is moved by
nationalism that does not allow speaking on behalf of Kashmiris who are
separatists. If India would have agreed for plebiscite, as called for
in a 1949 U.N. resolution, the conflict could be resolved in a peaceful
manner but the reality is cruel as the formula of resolution does not
work because India wants to have win situation rather than losing
Kashmir.
7. Success and Failure of conflict management
India
and Pakistan have been engaging in violence for last couple of decades
in Kashmir. Galtung (1998) has shown how violence affects, “…Direct,
structural and cultural violence that hurts both directly and
indirectly, and the culture that justifies it…”. Similarly India and
Pakistan chose the path of violence from the very beginning of the
conflict. Nevertheless, Indian government has continued domination over
Kashmiris to suppress their desire for independence. Though UN made
several resolutions, it had never shown any sign of ending conflict in
Kashmir. The main disadvantage to imply any peaceful settlement could
be the absence of communication channel and nobody is there to relieve
anger of each conflicting party. The lack of approaches of peace
building and lack of good will of actors are other reasons for
continuous conflict in this region.
There is no remarkable success story in managing the conflict in
Kashmir. In July 1949, India and Pakistan signed the Karachi Agreement
establishing a cease fire line that would be supervised by the
observers, which was the first noticeable success in stopping cross
boarder tension. Security Council, by its resolution 91 (1951) decided
that UNMOGIP should continue to supervise the ceasefire in Kashmir,
which indicated UN’s initiatives regarding the conflict. In July1972,
India and Pakistan signed an agreement defining a Line of Control in
Kashmir that can be considered as a temporary step to stop violence.
1949 U.N. resolution was a good try to denote the future of Kashmir in
a democratic way that suggested the residents of Jammu and Kashmir
would vote for deciding. In my opinion, the resolution was good enough
to resolve the conflict. India was the obstacle against the resolution
and dismissed the chance to resolve conflict. It is also reasonable why
India does not agree for plebiscite, as it may lead Kashmiris to
separate from India. Hence UN has failed over the last fifty years to
resolve or transform conflict of Kashmir.
Asian Political News (2002:1) has reported that, “A Pakistani
special envoy voiced expectations that Japan will make further efforts
to alleviate the current tension between…”. Pakistan has always
welcomed third party negotiators as the bilateral dialogue with India.
United
States can bring success as a negotiator but the lack of will is
barrier. Over the fifty years, US relationships with India and Pakistan
have experienced ups and downs, as one goes up, the other goes down.
The United States has rejected President Pervez Musharraf’s call to
mediate on the Kashmir issue as part of his roadmap for normalization
of Indo-Pak ties.[ii]
Already India denies Musharraf’s suggestion to involve any third party
including U.S. to resolve Kashmir Conflict. Thus it is essential to
have Indian government’s good will for engaging third party negotiator
to mediate the peace process. Third party intervention, mediation or
facilitation is impossible unless India accepts it.
The Muslim population of Kashmir has organized an umbrella
organization consisting of 33 political parties. It is called the All
Parties (Hurriyat) Freedom Conference. It was formed to conduct
dialogue with Indian government. The government behaved worse with the
organization. They have refused all dialogs with the organization and
have beaten and imprisoned its leaders. Hence a democratic initiative
to resolve conflict has resulted in harassment, insulation and ill
judgment committed by Indian government against the political parties
in Kashmir. It is comparable to structural violence done by Indian
governments against Kashmiris, which is explained by Galtung (1998),
“…structural violence may be as bad as, or worse than, direct violence.
People die or lead miserable lives because they are politically
repressed, or economically exploited, or deprived of the freedom…” It
can be simply assumed from this analysis how difficult it is to resolve
the Kashmir conflict as any peace process initiated inside the state
can be brutally suppressed and third party intervention can be colored
as interference in to sovereign state like India.
Conclusion
India had
been and still is rigid at considering Kashmir as an internal problem.
India has disobeyed the UN resolution of Plebiscite. During the long
struggle of claiming Kashmir, India has changed the strategy from
accession to bilateralism of Simla Agreement. India does not want to
have any third party mediation because of fear from loosing the
territory. If Kashmir is separated, insurgencies at other provinces may
escalate. Hindu-Muslim riot in any part of India may trigger the
communal black lash in Kashmir. Therefore, Kashmir is vulnerable to
conflict. Though India believes in bilateralism, Indian government does
not trust Pakistan. At the edge of around fifty years of conflict at
Kashmir, both governments blame each other. Kargil war, nuclear test
and missile race between the two countries centering Kashmir proves
that there is no advancement in conflict resolution. The government of
two countries have arranges bilateral talks many times to resolve the
issue and but those dialogues could not bring any good result or
decision. This means bilateral dialogues is not at all a fruitful
strategy to manage conflict in Kashmir unless they trust each other.
Muslim leaders and militants of Kashmir have already lost their
faith at Indian government after being suppressed, beaten and jailed
when they came up with democratic and political approach to resolve
conflict. Hence the Kashmiris do not have voice to raise the issue that
may threat territorial integrity of India. Kashmiris desire for
Pakistani involvement in resolving the conflict has intensified after
the Indian government has undermined them. Another mistake of Indian
government is that, they have employed fanatic Hindu leaders especially
L.K. Advani in the bilateral talks, who is never trusted by the Muslims
in India. Even these leaders spread hatred against Muslims and show
their prejudices through their speeches and statements. They also play
stimulating role in spreading communal violence in India. India blames
that Pakistan encourages cross boarder terrorism in Kashmir. Pakistan
officially denies all the blames of India except their moral support
for the militants. Militants in Kashmir are mostly driven by the
economic and political frustration. They are not the fanatic Muslims or
holy warrior. They are fighting for the independence from oppression of
Indian government. Though Indian government claims few terrorist
network might have been active in Kashmir, Kashmiris have been fighting
for political freedom. Pakistan is still holding long standing points
of plebiscite that allows Kashmiris to choose either Pakistan or India.
Many Kashmiri Muslims would prefer to be independent of both India and
Pakistan. As the bilateral dialogue does not work, third party
negotiation is not accepted by India, and Kashmiris does not have voice
and political freedom, conflict management strategies are precisely
helpless within the rigid conspiracy political structure of India and
Pakistan
Recommendation
Long
term or generational vision for peace building can be a fruitful
approach to resolve conflict in Kashmir. The first recommendation for
resolving conflict in Kashmir should to stop violence and war. As
bilateral negotiation has made significant failure during last couple
of decades, third party negotiator could be a fruitful way. U.S. can be
a good choice as third party negotiator because U.S. has good foreign
relation with both the countries. Following the background of the
systematic distrust between the leaders of India and Pakistan, the
United States may be able to help the two countries to bridge the gap.
India’s reluctance for third party negotiation can be dealt by
International community. U.N. can play a role for convincing India to
accept U.S. as the negotiator. India and Pakistan have strong military
capacity and nuclear weapons. It is relevant to choose a super power as
negotiator otherwise both countries may undermine negotiator. European
Union (EU) can also play the role of mediator but definitely not better
than U.S.
It is also recommended to reduce the distrust between leaders of
India and Pakistan. Especially the Elite Hindu leaders of India do not
have respect for leaders of Kashmir. The elite leaders have negligence
against Muslims of Kashmir besides disbelief for Pakistani leaders. In
such a distrustful situation, training programs or workshops can be
organized to boost up faith for each party towards another party.
Education, training, and advocacy program for leaders of both countries
can be an alternate way to improve tolerance and trust. Improve or
bring changes in the behavior of the political leaders can be effective
means for conflict management in Kashmir.
A regional body can play important role to mitigate conflicts.
European Union could be a role model to develop a regional mechanism
that can open up windows of opportunities in South Asia. ASEAN has
proved itself as a useful body for escalating trade, business and
economic activities in the South East Asia. A regional body’s success
depends on the principle of consensus among its members. Principle of
non-interference was equally important for the development of ASEAN.
From the light of these regional bodies, strengthening SAARC or
developing the similar kind with deferent mission could be an approach
in South Asia to deal with the regional conflicts. Being nuclear power,
India and Pakistan have developed huge power gap with other countries
in South Asia, which has left the SAARC as a useless body. There is a
doubt whether the concept of regional body fits within a regional
structure where imbalance of power, economy and lack of consensus exist.
I agree with Galtung’s idea of creating a new reality, an ‘empirical
reality’ that may lead a possibility to transform conflict in to a
peaceful solution, Galtung (1998) says, “…the conflict between two
countries over a disputed territory may end by one winning in a
military or court battle, by a compromise dividing the territory, by
both of them withdrawing their claims, leaving the territory to
somebody else (such as the inhabitants!), or by the two owning the
territory together. Clearly only the last outcome transcends empirical
reality; the others conform to the formula that each square kilometre
is owned by one state alone…”. Galtung’s idea of transcending empirical
reality can be experimented on Kashmir issue between India and Pakistan.
It could be more effective to motivate the leaders of all three
parties to sit at the table to have some prospective discussion over
the issues. Leaders of the Indian government should show respect to the
leaders of Kashmiri Muslims. Pakistani leaders have to be more
considerate about what is good for Kashmiri people rather than their
own benefit. Indian leaders should have the mentality for not wining at
all situations. These leaders should understand that violence culture
results more violence, catastrophe and loss of lives. In addition, the
leaders should have the acceptance for new creative approaches and
ideas to transform conflict for the better future of South Asia.
References
Askandar, Kamarulzaman (2003) ‘Management and Resolution of
Inter-state Conflicts in Southeast Asia’, Malaysia: Southeast Asian
Conflict Studies Network (SEACSN).
Asian Political News (August 10, 1998) ‘U.S. urges India, Pakistan
to stop Kashmir conflict’, available at,
http://www.findarticles.com/cf_0/m0WDQ/1998_August_10/53000374/p1/article.jhtml,
accessed on February 23, 2004
Asian Political News (June 24, 2002) ‘Pakistan hopes for Japan’s
role to settle Kashmir conflict’, available at , accessed on February
23, 2004
Galtung, Johan (1998) ‘Conflict Transformation by Peaceful Means
(the Transcend Method)’, A Manual Prepared by the Crisis Environments
Training Initiative and the Disaster Management Training Programme of
the United Nations, UN Crisis Environments Training Initiative (CETI)
and the Disaster Management Training Programme (DMTP), available at
http://www.transcend.org/CONFLENG.HTM, accessed on April 05, 2004.
Indurthy, Rathnam (July, 2003) ‘Seeking an end to the Kashmir
Quagmire: can India and Pakistan be brought to the table to resolve the
conflict that has been ongoing for more than half a century?
(Worldview)’, USA Today (Magazine), available at,
http://www.findarticles.com/cf_0/m1272/2698_132/104971297/p1/article.jhtml,
accessed on February 23, 2004.
Kashmir Map, The University of Texas at Austin, General Libraries,
available at
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/kashmir_disputed_2003.jpg,
accessed on March 02, 2004.
Mehta, Suketu (July-August, 2003) ‘Too beautiful for death: vital to
two nuclear powers, Kashmir is the epicenter of the world’s most
dangerous conflict’, Mother Jones, available at , accessed on February
23, 2004
Ramesh, Randeep (2004) ‘Kahmir edges a step closer to peace’, Just Commentary, Malaysia
Schematic map of disputed Kashmir, Embassy of India, Washington
D.C., available at
http://www.indianembassy.org/new/Kargil/J&K_Map.html, March 02,
2004.
Shuja, Sharif (Oct, 2002) ‘The conflict in Kashmir’, Contemporary
Review, available at
http://www.findarticles.com/cf_0/m2242/1641_281/93827716/p1/article.jhtml,
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Singh, Nirvikar, ‘Cultural Conflict in India: Punjab and Kashmir’,
University of California, Santa Cruz available at,
http://repositories.cdlib.org/uciaspubs/research/98/10/, accessed on
March 02, 2004.
End Notes
[i]
UNMOGIP’s presence was nothing but witnessing the disputes and
massacres in Kashmir, see the background of UNMOGIP, accessed on March
02, 2004.
[ii]
US denies to play the role of a mediator that indicates US’s reluctance
to engage in Kashmir conflict to resolve it. For detail see,
http://ushome.rediff.com/news/2003/jun/28pak1.htm, accessed on March
02, 2004.
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